Since Russia’s call for mobilization in September 2022, thousands of Russians have left their country, with a notable number settling in the EU, specifically in the Baltic States, Finland, Germany, and Poland. While initial analyses of this migration wave were abundant, many reports overstate its impact and overlook the complex motivations behind the exodus.
The report identifies two main waves of recent Russian migration to the EU. The first, in spring, involved many political activists, academics, and IT professionals, driven largely by opposition to Russia’s government. By contrast, the autumn wave consisted mainly of those escaping conscription, many of whom hold no strong political views against the Kremlin.
After resettling, most new Russian émigrés shift focus from Russian politics to adapting to their new environments. Political activism fades, and interaction with earlier Russian migrant communities, especially those who migrated post-Crimea, remains limited. These newcomers often view EU policies from a Russia-centered perspective, struggling to align with host nations’ security priorities. Sensitive topics, such as donations to the Ukrainian army, stir discomfort and avoidance, with many Russians refraining from involvement in the ongoing conflict, attributing responsibility to Russian state media and government propaganda.
While many émigrés maintain personal ties in Russia, they typically avoid discussing political issues with those back home. This growing separation suggests they are unlikely to influence perspectives on the Russia-Ukraine conflict among those still in Russia. Few see a future for themselves or their children in Russia, favoring stability abroad over any prospect of change at home.
For the EU, this analysis advises prioritizing internal security over expectations for transformative impact from Russian migrants. In the current landscape, the likelihood of this group forming a politically influential diaspora capable of effecting change in Russia remains low.
